Energy outlook sees demand up, carbon intensity down
By OGJ editors
Jan 25, 2016 + + + Global energy demand will
increase 25% between 2014 and 2040, driven by population growth and
economic expansion, according to ExxonMobil Corp.’s 2016 Outlook for
Energy. Most of this growth will occur in nations outside the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development.
At the same time, the carbon intensity of the global economy will decline
by half because of energy efficiency gains and increased use of renewable
energy sources and lower carbon fuels, such as
In 2040, oil will provide one third of the world’s energy, remaining the
No. 1 source of fuel, and natural gas will move into second place.
Natural gas is expected to meet about 40% of
the growth in global energy needs and demand for the fuel will increase by
50%. In 2040, oil and natural gas are expected to make up nearly 60% of
Nuclear and renewable energy sources—including bioenergy, hydro,
geothermal, wind, and solar—are also likely to account for nearly 40% of
the growth in global energy demand by 2040. By then, they are expected to
make up nearly 25% of supplies of which nuclear alone represents about
The outlook projects that global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
will peak around 2030 and then start to decline. Emissions in OECD nations
are projected to fall by about 20% from 2014 to 2040.
Other key findings of the report include
Source: OGJ editiors, Oil & Gas Journal -
|• North America, which for decades had been an oil importer,
is on track to become a net exporter around 2020.
|• India will surpass China as the world’s most populous
nation, with 1.6 billion people. The two countries are expected to
account for almost half of the growth in global energy demand.
|• Global demand for electricity is expected to increase by
65%, and 85% of the increase is in non-OECD nations.
|• The share of the world’s electricity generated by coal is
expected to fall to about 30% in 2040 from 40% in 2014.
|• Global energy demand from transportation is projected to
rise by about 30%, and practically all the growth will be in
|• Sales of hybrid vehicles are expected to jump from 2% of
new-car sales in 2014 to more than 40% by 2040, when one in four
cars in the world will be a hybrid. Average fuel economy will rise
to 45 mpg from 25 mpg.
|• Already the world’s largest oil-importing region, Asia
Pacific’s net imports are projected to rise by more than 50% by
2040 as domestic production remains steady and demand increases.
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