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According to the outlook, all fuels experience growth, with the fastest in renewables (+6.4% p.a.). By 2035, 14% of world electricity is from renewable sources, up from just 5% in 2012. Among fossil fuels, natural gas is fastest (+1.9% p.a.), followed by coal (+1.1% p.a.) and oil (+0.8% p.a.).
Out to 2035, more than a third of global liquids will be supplied by the
US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. Natural gas supplies will reach nearly 500
bcfd by 2035, of which 20% will be from the US. BP projects that, between 2012 and 2035, US energy production will rise 24%, significantly outpacing consumption growth of just 3%. By 2035, US will be energy self-sufficient by producing 101% of its energy needs, up from 69% in 2005. Over the forecast period, consumption growth in natural gas (+21%) and renewables in power generation (+277%) offsets large decline in oil (-18%), coal (-12%) and nuclear (-17%) demand. According to the outlook, natural gas will hold a 35% share of the US energy mix in 2035, replacing oil as the leading fuel in US energy consumption. Oil’s share will fall from 36% to 29%. Fossil fuels still account for 80% of US energy demand in 2035, down from today’s 85%. Renewables in power generation will increase to 8% from 2%.
Rising US production of oil (+37%) and natural gas (+45%) will outpace
declines in coal (-20%). Tight oil output will triple to 4.5 million b/d
in 2035. Shale gas production should more than double to 65 bcfd, reaching
nearly 70% of the total. BP’s projections on European energy markets are out to 2030. The region’s energy demand is expected to rise just 5% by 2030, according to the outlook. And the region’s energy intensity is expected to decline 29%. Demand for fossil fuels declines 7% with losses in oil (-15%) and coal (-33%) overwhelming gains in gas (+26%). Renewable demand expands 180%, rising to 13% of market share by 2030 from 5% in 2011.
European energy production is expected to drop 1%, according to BP’s
projection. Production of all fossil fuels will drop, led by oil (-50%),
coal (-29%), and gas (-21%). Despite a 4% decline, nuclear power is
forecast to overtake gas as the dominant domestic energy source for the
region. Import dependence increases from 46% today to 49% by 2030 and
Europe will remain the largest net importer of natural gas in the world. During 2012 to 2035, China’s energy production is expected to rise 61% while consumption grows 71%, BP projects. The country’s energy production as a share of consumption is expected to fall to 80% by 2035 from its current 85%, driving import dependence to 20% from 15%. BP expects that China’s share in global demand will rise to 27% by 2035, and China will become the world’s largest energy importer, exceeding Europe. Among China’s energy mix, coal’s dominance is forecast to decline to 52% in 2035 from 69% today and natural gas is forecast to rise to 12%, while oil’s share is expected to remain unchanged at 18%. According to the outlook, China will overtake the US as the world’s largest oil consumer by 2027. The country’s oil and gas import dependences will be 76% and 41% in 2035, respectively, up from 57% and 25% in 2012. Other BRIC countries By 2035, India’s energy demand growth of 132% will outpace each of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries, BP forecasts. India’s demand for all fossil fuels will rise, led by gas (+183%), oil (+121%), and coal (+108%). India is expected to become increasingly import-dependent despite its gains in nonfossil fuel production. The country’s oil imports are expected to rise 169%, accounting for more than 60% of the net increase in imports.
Brazil’s energy production as a share of consumption is forecast to rise
to 106% by 2035 from 92% today, transforming the country from an energy
importer to an exporter. Fossil fuels will account for 54% of Brazilian
energy consumption in 2035, compared with a global average of 81%. Middle East outlook
The Middle East will remain the world’s largest oil producing region, and
its share of global supplies will expand to 34% in 2035 from 32% today, BP
forecasts. By 2035, oil production from the Middle East is expected to
expand by 22%. The region will maintain its leading role as the world’s
top oil exporter, but the capacity to export is expected to decline, with
55% growth in domestic use through 2035. Its share of interregional
exports will remain about 50%.
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